by Ntombi Malatsi | Feb 28, 2016 | ECONOMIC NEWS
Gearing up for a new week
The US Prelim GDP last Friday which was expected to be at 0.4% came out above that and actually reached our deviation trigger which was 0.3%, the actual figure was 1.0%, We saw a move in the US Dollar, me and my team sold NZD, EUR and JPY and also using the correlation of Gold to the US Dollar, we sold xauusd as well, learn how to trade gold HERE. The upcoming week is packed with important data and the NFP which is the most significant data this coming Friday, learn more about the Non-Farm Payroll’s future dates HERE. The most successful trades, are the well planned ones.
|
ECONOMIC CALENDAR FEBRUARY 29TH TO MARCH 4th |
| DATE |
NEWS |
NEW YORK TIME |
LOCAL TIME |
FORECAST |
CURRENCY |
| 29TH February |
Building Approvals |
8:30pm |
2:30am 1st March |
-2.9% |
AUD |
| 29th February |
Cash Rate |
11:30pm |
5:30am 1st March |
2.00% |
AUD |
| 29th February |
RBA Rate Statement |
11:30pm |
5:30am 1st March |
|
AUD |
| 1st March |
Manufacturing PMI |
5:30am |
11:30am |
52.3% |
GBP |
| 1st March |
Canada GDP |
9:30am |
3:30pm |
0.1% |
CAD |
| 1st March |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
11:00am |
5:00pm |
48.5 |
USD |
| 1st March |
GDP |
8:30pm |
2:30am 2nd March |
0.5% |
AUD |
| 2nd March |
Construction PMI |
5:30am |
11:30am |
55.5 |
GBP |
| 2nd March |
ADP Non-farm Employment Change |
9:15am |
3:15pm |
185K |
USD |
| 2nd March |
Trade Balance |
8:30pm |
2:30am 3rd March |
-3.22B |
AUD |
| 3rd March |
Services PMI |
5:30am |
11:30am |
55.1 |
GBP |
| 3rd March |
Unemployment Claims |
9:30am |
3:30pm |
271k |
USD |
| 3rd March |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
11:00am |
5:00pm |
49.8 |
USD |
| 3rd March |
Retail Sales |
8:30pm |
2:30am 4th March |
0.4% |
AUD |
| 4th March |
Trade Balance |
9:30am |
3:30pm |
-1.0B |
CAD |
| 4th March |
Average Hourly Earnings |
9:30am |
3:30pm |
0.25 |
USD |
| 4th March |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
9:30am |
3:30pm |
195k |
USD |
| 4th March |
Trade Balance |
9:30am |
3:30pm |
-43.5B |
USD |
| 4th March |
Unemployment Rate |
9:30am |
3:30pm |
4.9% |
USD |
by Ntombi Malatsi | Feb 14, 2016 | ECONOMIC NEWS
Non-Farm Payroll – What is NFP
Non-Farm Payroll also known as U.S Employment change/NFP is one of the leading indicators in Forex market. The NFP focuses on jobs created or lost in the current month, and that exclude farm/agricultural workers hence the name Non-Farm Payroll. We (traders) look for that small change or shift in the figure released as compared to the previous month. Because NFP is released every first Friday of each month, there are previous and also forecast/expected figures. When the figure comes out above forecast, it means more jobs were created (excluding farm workers) and the market perceives that as good for currency involved (USD), and when it comes out below forecast, the opposite is perceived. NFP is the most watched economic event of the month. During this period, the market becomes volatile. NFP is also a leading indicator in determining the U.S economic growth and inflation. There is another economic event that is released along with NFP, it is called Average Hourly Earnings. Average Hourly Earnings is overlooked by many traders. It is also released every first Friday of the month at the same time as NFP.
What is Average hourly Earnings and how does is affect the NFP figures
Average Hourly Earnings is also released by the Bureau of Labor statistics and it measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor or amount that the employees make per hour in the current month, and that excludes the farm/agricultural industry, it is also released every first Friday of the month at the same time as NFP. I believe it should not be overlooked, I have overlooked it a couple of times and I ended up being confused by the NFP outcomes. When businesses pay more for the labor, the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. When the NFP figure comes out above forecast, it means more jobs were created, but when the Average Hourly Earnings comes out below forecast, it also means the amount that the workers are making per hour has decreased, which then also contribute to their spending, that is where the conflict is, the results must be in sync with each other. It happened again on the previous NFP (5th Feb), the figures were clashing, see screenshot below taken from previous NFP, next time when you trade NFP, try not to overlook the Average Hourly Earnings.

My past experience of trading NFP has taught me to look deeper than just the NFP figure, I have been disappointed so many times, when the NFP figure was so good and also the deviation trigger reached, but US Dollar never rallied as expected. Keeping a trading journal and doing post analysis on your trades and also having a trading plan is good practice and that is how you can improve and gain more skill, that is how I got to realize that I needed to pay attention to the Average Hourly Earnings. If you have been trading NFP, I am definitely sure you have seen what I am talking about and hopefully you’ll pay attention next time. Thank you for stopping by, below are the dates to diaries for the NFP 2016.
| NON-FARM PAYROLL SCHEDULE 2016 |
| MONTH |
DATE |
| January |
08 |
| February |
05 |
| March |
04 |
| April |
01 |
| May |
06 |
| June |
03 |
| July |
08 |
| August |
05 |
| September |
02 |
| October |
07 |
| November |
04 |
| December |
02 |
by Ntombi Malatsi | Jan 27, 2016 | ECONOMIC NEWS
Federal Open Market Committee-FOMC
FOMC is the branch of the US federal reserve board that determines the direction of monetary policy ( actions of a central bank that determines the size and rate of growth of the money supply). The FOMC comprises of the board of governors which has 7 members and 5 reserve banks presidents. They meet up and hold their meetings 8 times a year to discuss the following:
- whether to increase or decrease money supply, which the Fed does by buying and selling government securities.
- To set key interest rates.
FOMC board members 2016
- Janet L. Yellen Board of Governors, Chair
- William C.Dudley New York, Vice Chairman
- Lael Brainard Board of Governors
- James Bullard St. Louis
- Stanley Fischer Board of Governors
- Esther L. George Kansas City
- Loretta J.Mester Cleveland
- Jerome H. Powell Board of Governors
- Eric Rosengren Boston
- Daniel K. Tarullo Board of Governors
Alternate members
- Charles L. Evens Chicago
- Patrick Harker Philadelphia
- Robert S Kaplan Dallas
- Neel Kashkari Minneapolis
- Michael Strine First Vice President, New York

Thank you for stopping by, We are looking forward to the first FOMC later today, trade safe and check out the exact time of the event here.
by Ntombi Malatsi | Jan 24, 2016 | ECONOMIC NEWS
KNOW THE BEST DAYS TO TRADE FOREX
Today’s post is focused on identifying the best days to trade Forex. There are different methods that traders use to trade in the Forex market. Whichever method that you use, there are things that you need to pay attention to, we are trading the same markets irrespective of the strategies used. One thing that traders need to acknowledge is that the banks are the major players in the markets, as they facilitate the majority of foreign exchange volume. Let’s start by looking at the worst days to trade Forex.
WORST DAYS TO TRADE FOREX
1. Bank holidays
As mentioned above, banks are the key players in Forex markets and whenever they are not participating in the market due to bank holiday, the market becomes less liquid and sometimes it becomes abnormally volatile. Most Forex brokers remain open even on bank holidays except on Christmas and new year’s day. It is highly important to know when are the bank holidays so that you can stay away from the currencies involved. In just few days Australian bank will be having their bank holiday on the 25th, they’ll be observing Australia day.
2. Monday
Forex market kicks of on Sunday at 5pm NY time (11pm South African Standard Time) with Sydney session followed by Asian session which kicks off 2 hour later, learn more about Forex market hours/sessions HERE, but during that time most traders are not really participating which explains the low liquidity. Monday morning is usually very quite even during the most traded session, the liquidity is still very low and market is sleepy because most traders are still hung over the weekend and everyone is preparing for their week. I am also not a big fan of trading on Mondays (well , mostly) unless there is some economic event which might move the market, or after a significant economic event from previous Friday, then I would trade on a Monday, and it mostly happens shortly after London/European session opens, at some point I declared Mondays as my day off the markets, since we all need to rest, when choosing a resting day, Monday is just perfect.
3. Friday afternoon
Fridays afternoon are more like Mondays, the market’s volatility dies down towards London session closing simply because most traders are already on their weekend mode and the participation or activity is less which then leads to less liquidity, I have also observed that over the past few years of trading and on Fridays, I try to be out of the market by that time as most traders are also trying to avoid carrying their positions over the weekend, so try to to be out of the markets by the time the London session closes, Fridays are not bad at all, afternoons are less liquid though.
BEST DAYS TO TRADE FOREX
I always noticed that the middle of the week seems perfect for trading even though I didn’t know the main reasons behind it. When I started to pay more attention to the daily speeches I got an answer, the news start to flow in the middle of the week mostly and that is when I also find more trading opportunities.
The above mentioned few points are some of the things that most traders overlook, the first thing that they find faulty when they fail is their current strategy, that is why most traders switch from one strategy to another, what if you are simply trading on the wrong day? I hope you find this post helpful, please kindly share it using the share buttons below. Thank you for stopping by, this blog is nothing without you, I am encouraged to write more because I know someone will read and somehow improve their own trading.
by Ntombi Malatsi | Jan 17, 2016 | ECONOMIC NEWS
New Zealand Dollar/NZD

Nickname : Kiwi
NZD= R10.85 to the south African Rand
New Zealand Dollar is a commodity currency.
NZD trades in high volumes during Asian session.
Central Bank Interest Rates: 2.50% (recently changed from 2.75%)
New Zealand (NZD) has the highest interest rates.
When you are holding a BUY position of NZD/JPY your account gets credited with a swap instead of being debited, because the interest rates in New Zealand (NZD) is higher than the interest rates in Japan (JPY), interest rate in Japan is <0.10%.
I have fallen in love with NZD, ok I am not a loyal “lover” when it comes to currencies I admit, so next time you might just hear me saying I am crazy in love with EUR, don’t be surprised, when currencies treat me well, I “fall in love” easily and when they misbehave, I move on just like that, at this time of writing this post, my “relationship” with Kiwi is very solid. If you are like me and you love trading NZD, you might as well get to know it better, this post is all about economic news affecting New Zealand Dollar.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This economic event is the change in price of goods and services purchased by consumers, consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation and it is released quarterly.
Interest Rates/ Official Cash Rates
This economic event measures the interest rates at which banks lend balances held at the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand (RBNZ) to other banks overnight, we (traders) care because the short-term interest rates are the important factor of currency evaluation, this is released 8 times a year.
Retail sales
This economic event measures the total value of the inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level and it is a primary gauge of consumer spending which account for the majority of overall economic activity and it is also released quarterly.
Gross Domestic Products (GDP)
This economic event measures a country’s total activity, goods and services produced within a country. GDP is an economic indicator to gauge the health of the country’s economy.
The events listed above are not the only economic news you’d find on economic calendar, there are some that I did not mention here, but as they happen, I do trade them depending on many factors. That’s it for today, thank you for stopping by, kindly share this post and stay tuned for more. For private lessons email admin@learnfxtrading.net.
by Ntombi Malatsi | Jan 8, 2016 | ECONOMIC NEWS
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